Research

Ke-Chyn Ng · Mui-Yin Chin ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2021 ·JEL: F14, F31

This study examined the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the level of international trade between Malaysia and China using 45 observations spanning from 2010 quarter 1 to 2021 quarter 1. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was adopted to compute the exchange rate fluctuations. International trade between Malaysia and China was selected in this study as, since 2009, China has consistently been Malaysia's top trading partner. Besides, to produce precise output, this study employed two models: the export and import models. The empirical results, derived from Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling, suggested that exchange rate fluctuations had a negative but statistically insignificant impact on exports. In contrast, exchange rate fluctuations had a positive and statistically significant impact on imports. This result implied that importers from Malaysia were generally risk-takers, as they tended to trade significantly during periods of high exchange rate fluctuation. However, to avoid losses for both exporters and importers due to exchange rate fluctuations, policymakers from both countries should ensure that facilities for exchange rate hedging become more convenient and straightforward for traders so that international trade continues to bloom for both countries.

Jaratin Lily · Imbarine Bujang · Abdul Aziz Karia · Jaratin Lily · Mori Kogid ·Eurasian Business Review ·2017 ·JEL: F23; F31; G15

This paper investigates a tale of two measures, which are market portfolio returns and exchange rate movements. The two measures are important risk factors which affect firm share returns. This study also demonstrates that the orthogonalized exchange rate exposure model is better at capturing the effects of exchange rate movements towards large Malaysian firm share returns. In addition to this, it was found that there were not significant differences in terms of number of exposed firms to exchange rate movements, when the Trade Weighted Index (TWI) and multi bilateral exchange rates were used, both in nominal and real terms. The study results also have shown that large Malaysian firms, including financial firms, were exposed to exchange rate movements regardless their level of foreign involvement. Interestingly, most of the exposed large firms are negatively affected when there is depreciation on home currency especially to the US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY). Even though the exchange rate volatility has failed to solve the exchange rate exposure puzzle among large firms in Malaysia, but the high level of sensitivity for most of the firm share returns to exchange rate volatility should not be ignored. Policymakers and financial managers should closely monitor the foreign exchange markets to mitigate the negative impact of exchange rate movements. Future research should also look into the possibility that the relationship between exchange rate movements and share returns is asymmetric.

Umar Ndako · Afees A. Salisu · Muritala O. Ogunsiji ·Asian Economics Letters ·2021

In this paper, the predictive value of geopolitical risk (GPR) for the return volatility of Islamic stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia is examined. GPR data, whether global or country-specific, heighten the return volatility of Islamic stocks in both countries, albeit with a greater impact on Indonesia. Additional analyses show improved out-of-sample forecast gains with the inclusion of GPR data in the predictive model of the return volatility of Islamic stocks