International Economics

Vickie Siew-Hoon Yew · Abul Quasem Al-Amin · Evelyn S Devadason ·Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ·2020 ·JEL: F14, F10, F19

The import intensive food processing sector in Malaysia is highly regulated with non-tariff measures (NTMs) from the import side. However, the ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of those NTMs vary substantially across the subsectors of food processing. To assess the trade costs or plausible protection effects associated with NTMs, the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed with partial removal of NTMs from the baseline scenario with NTMs. The disaggregated impact of a reduction in NTMs indicate disproportionate gains in trade (both imports and exports) across the various subsectors, with highest gains derived by the subsectors with relatively high AVEs, namely dairy products, bakery products and animal feeds. The simulation findings further show that the overall impact of a reduction in NTMs on trade is larger in the long run relative to the short run, suggesting slow responses to such policy changes, as NTMs present themselves as a package and not as an instrument.

Afiza Idris · Normaz Wana Ismail · Shaufique Fahmi · Ahmad Sidique · Shivee Ranjanee Kaliappan ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2020 ·JEL: C41, F10, F14

Furthering future growth for the food processing industry in Malaysia faces multiple challenges, an area in which a recent trend shows the competitiveness of the exported processed food industry is declining. The sustainability of export flow is found to be a critical factor for long-term export growth. This paper provides empirical evidence on the survival pattern of Malaysia’s processed food exports. The Kaplan-Meier technique is used in this paper to estimate the export survival time and rate of 128 processed food products at 31 export destinations for the period between 2000 and 2017. The findings show that food exporters face a high risk of failure in the initial years of exporting. At the aggregate level, the median survival time of processed food exports is two years, which means that 50% of export relationships face failure by the second year of exporting. The chances of export survival differ in terms of product groups and export destinations. This study also found that a higher initial export value increases the success rate of export survival.

Beng Ann Tee · Siew Yean Tham · Andrew Jia Yi Kam ·Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ·2020 ·JEL: F1, F14, L8

ICT intensive services were found to contribute to the service export growth in developed countries. However, empirical work on the role of ICT in ASEAN’s services export is sparse due mainly to the scarcity of bilateral services trade data. This study uses mirror data from the ASEAN-5’s trading partners from 2000 to 2012 for examining the impact of ICT on the ASEAN-5’s services export. A set of constructed ICT indicators are found to have significant positive network effect on the ASEAN-5’s services export. Thus, the higher the ICT development level in both trading partner countries, the higher their bilateral services exports with each other. But, the positive impact of ICT on the ASEAN-5’s trade in services can be offset by the presence of trade costs. Therefore, policies enhancing trade facilitation should be used in tandem with the development of ICT in order to promote the ASEAN-5’s services export.

Noor Zahirah Mohd Sidek · Bhuk Kiranantawat · Martusorn Khaengkhan ·Economies ·2022

In the present paper, we show how uncertainty emanating from fluctuations in economic uncertainty, news-based uncertainty, and geopolitical risks affect the number of containers exported from Thailand via Penang Port, Malaysia. Our sample extends from January 2009 to May 2020 from three main entry points in the Northern Peninsular Malaysia–Thailand Border: Padang Besar, Surat Thani, and Bukit Kayu Hitam. Two modes of transportation of containers are mainly used for export purposes, namely, road and rai. This study examines the nonlinear effect of uncertainty on trade by employing a two-regime Markov regime-switching approach. The empirical results show that, overall, uncertainty significantly affects the movement of containers in the high-uncertainty regime. Therefore, small ports must continue to diversify their client base to cushion the impact of fluctuations in global trade due to uncertainty

Said Zamin Shah · Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah · Rusmawati Said · Rafiqa Murdipi ·Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ·2019

This study examines the effects of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Malaysia's macroeconomic indicators. Three substantive findings emerged from our inquiry based on a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model: (1) Domestic uncertainty - in nominal and real terms - seems to have no material impact on the macro-economy after controlling for global uncertainty. (2) Fluctuations in the global EPU are more important than domestic uncertainty in predicting a country's macroeconomic variables, particularly output and CPI-based inflation. The macroeconomic variables carry signs as per theoretical expectation. (3) The model predicts that external shocks exhibit a much larger impact on macroeconomic variables than those shocks originating from domestic markets. The results have deepened our insight on how the real variables correlate with external uncertainties and the fitful recovery in the recent past.

Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh · Le Chang · Yemo Zhang ·The Chinese Economy ·2019

With trade volume registering more than US$10 billion in recent years, Malaysia has already been China’s largest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trading partner since 2008 and its third biggest Asian trading partner after Japan and South Korea. It is expected that China–Malaysia bilateral trade with an 8% annual growth rate will continue to expand, and this strong bilateral tie is set to be strengthened in the face of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s efforts to enhance regional connectivity and especially maritime linkage by proposing the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) construction. Malaysia is well placed, probably even better than most of its ASEAN neighbors, to embrace the opportunities brought about by the surge of infrastructure development and trade deals that is going to come with the progress in constructing the ocean-based Maritime Silk Road (MSR), one of the two initiatives of OBOR, the other being the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt. With Malaysia’s traditional linkage with China’s southeastern provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, and as the holder of the Strait of Malacca, Malaysia is occupying a key strategic location that can serve well as China’s gateway to the ASEAN Economic Community. A statement made by the Malaysian transport minister has declared that a few ports in Malaysia has been identified to be part of the MSR. The close ties between both countries have resulted in cooperation in the transportation field such as railway projects and purchasing of trains from China. Indeed, Malaysia is in the process of developing inter–port city collaboration between China’s Qinzhou Port and Malaysia’s Kuantan Port. In recent years, China’s Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group has bought a 40% stake in Malaysia’s Kuantan Port Consortium from the construction group IJM Group for a total of US$102 million. It is in such context and with due consideration of such developments that this paper will explore the prospects and challenges facing China–Malaysia cooperation within the overall framework of China–ASEAN strategic relations.

Yuegang Song · Ruixian Huang · Sudharshan Reddy Paramati · Abdulrasheed Zakari ·Economic Analysis and Policy ·2021

This study empirically examines the impact of economic integration on stock market co-movements of India with major Asian markets such as China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We collect daily data on stock market indices from September 1999 to December 2017. The asymmetric generalised dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model is applied to estimate the time-varying conditional correlations among the various stock markets. Next, the panel autoregressive distributed lag method is applied to investigate the impact of economic integration on stock market co-movements. Our results show that economic integration has a significant positive impact on stock market co-movements in the region. The results also provide supporting evidence that the global financial crisis positively contributed to stock market interdependence in the Asian region.

Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi · Zulkefly Abdul Karim · Noor Amirah Zaidon ·Economies ·2022

Movements in palm oil price give important signals to various stakeholders of the palm oil industry in Malaysia. Thus, understanding external and internal factors that may affect the palm oil price is vital to the industry players for sustainability of their activities. This study investigates relative importance of external and internal shocks on the movement of palm oil price in Malaysia. Employing a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model on quarterly data from 1990 to 2019, the findings reveal that external shocks are more dominant in affecting the palm oil price. Shocks to the crude oil price, the prices of substitution goods (soybeans oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil), the world palm oil price, and foreign income significantly affect the palm oil price in the short and medium run. The results also indicate that a shock to soybean oil price has a more profound effect on the palm oil price than a shock to rapeseed oil or sunflower oil prices, respectively. Likewise, shocks to incomes from India as well as from Netherlands create greater impacts on the palm oil price than a shock to income from the other trading partners, respectively. The study has shown the importance of external factors in affecting the palm oil industry.

Abdul Rahim Ridzuan · Vikniswari Vija Kumaran · Bayu Arie Fianto · Mohd Shahidan Shaari · Miguel Ange Esquivias · Aliashim Albani ·International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ·2022

Over the past forty years, Malaysia has achieved tremendous economic growth because of higher investment from foreigner such as from China, Japan, and US. Many multinational companies (MNC) have allocated their factories especially in more developed state such as Selangor, Penang and Johor to focused on their operation. The country able to receive various benefits from this investment in the form of job creation, advancement in technology, better income distribution and at same time, some negative externalities such as environmental degradation can also take place from those operation. Given this situation, it is interesting to investigate the current state of sustainable development for Malaysia by considering the impacts of FDI. This paper focused on investigating the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) as well as Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) for Malaysia using a latest annual dataset for the period 1971 until 2019. The study used Bound test to determine the impact of FDI and other selected macroeconomic variables on environmental quality proxied by Carbon emission (CO2). The outcomes shows that the country showcased the U shaped of EKC and higher FDI inflows has worsening the country’s environmental pollution. These outcomes posit a bad alarm for the policymakers of the country to be more aware on the consequences of development that cause higher carbon emissions release and how MNC in the country contribute more emissions with make the scenario worsen. Heavy environmental rules should be imposed to foreign investors and the country need to be directing their economic development by following the principles set out by United Nation in pursing sustainable development.

Chia Lin Chang · Yu-Hui Wang · Kuo-I-Chang ·Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ·2022 ·JEL: F14, F10, F61

This study performs survival analysis to evaluate duration of revived and new machinery import and the hazard ratios (HRs) of covariates related to the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The results indicate that large tariff margins decreased the possibility of disruption (HR: 0.8024) to Japanese import from ASEAN countries after revived during the COVID-19 pandemic and increased the possibility of disruption (HR: 1.0338) to Chinese import from ASEAN countries of new import during the GFC.

Arif Imam Suroso ·Economies ·2022

Palm oil is one of the most traded vegetable oils in the global market due to its versatile usage and having a lower price than competitor products. Trade is related to logistics performance as it connects the exporter and importer countries; thus, improving the indicators of logistics also improves the performance of trade, especially in agricultural export. Currently, no study has revealed the effect of logistics performance on palm oil export by considering all the indicators. This study investigates the impact of all the indicators of the logistics performance index on palm oil and palm-based products. Using a panel data regression approach, the extended gravity model is applied in this study to examine Indonesia and Malaysia as the leading exporters of palm oil and palmbased products. The results reveal that all the Logistics Performance Index indicators affect palm oil and palm-based products export in Indonesia and Malaysia. The critical indicators of the Logistics Performance Index in Indonesia are timeliness and tracking and tracing. However, competence and quality of trade infrastructure are the main indicators of Malaysia’s palm oil and palm-based products. The future direction of this research is to explore other agricultural commodities and extend the period of the analysis.

Siew Yean Tham · Soo Khoon Goh · Koi Nyen Wong · Ahmad Fadhli ·Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ·2018 ·JEL: F21

In light of a change in the foreign direct investment (FDI) landscape such as the rapid growth of outward FDI from Malaysia since 2007, this article ascertains the possible impact of inward and outward FDI on Malaysia’s bilateral export trade at the sectoral level, using a dynamic gravity approach. The findings reveal that both inward and outward FDI are complementary to bilateral export trade in the services, mining, and manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the distance elasticity and the real effective exchange rate have a different negative impact on different sectors. Overall, the sectoral bilateral exports could not insulate against external events.