Research

Ke-Chyn Ng · Mui-Yin Chin ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2021 ·JEL: F14, F31

This study examined the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the level of international trade between Malaysia and China using 45 observations spanning from 2010 quarter 1 to 2021 quarter 1. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was adopted to compute the exchange rate fluctuations. International trade between Malaysia and China was selected in this study as, since 2009, China has consistently been Malaysia's top trading partner. Besides, to produce precise output, this study employed two models: the export and import models. The empirical results, derived from Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling, suggested that exchange rate fluctuations had a negative but statistically insignificant impact on exports. In contrast, exchange rate fluctuations had a positive and statistically significant impact on imports. This result implied that importers from Malaysia were generally risk-takers, as they tended to trade significantly during periods of high exchange rate fluctuation. However, to avoid losses for both exporters and importers due to exchange rate fluctuations, policymakers from both countries should ensure that facilities for exchange rate hedging become more convenient and straightforward for traders so that international trade continues to bloom for both countries.

Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh · Le Chang · Yemo Zhang ·The Chinese Economy ·2019

With trade volume registering more than US$10 billion in recent years, Malaysia has already been China’s largest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trading partner since 2008 and its third biggest Asian trading partner after Japan and South Korea. It is expected that China–Malaysia bilateral trade with an 8% annual growth rate will continue to expand, and this strong bilateral tie is set to be strengthened in the face of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s efforts to enhance regional connectivity and especially maritime linkage by proposing the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) construction. Malaysia is well placed, probably even better than most of its ASEAN neighbors, to embrace the opportunities brought about by the surge of infrastructure development and trade deals that is going to come with the progress in constructing the ocean-based Maritime Silk Road (MSR), one of the two initiatives of OBOR, the other being the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt. With Malaysia’s traditional linkage with China’s southeastern provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, and as the holder of the Strait of Malacca, Malaysia is occupying a key strategic location that can serve well as China’s gateway to the ASEAN Economic Community. A statement made by the Malaysian transport minister has declared that a few ports in Malaysia has been identified to be part of the MSR. The close ties between both countries have resulted in cooperation in the transportation field such as railway projects and purchasing of trains from China. Indeed, Malaysia is in the process of developing inter–port city collaboration between China’s Qinzhou Port and Malaysia’s Kuantan Port. In recent years, China’s Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group has bought a 40% stake in Malaysia’s Kuantan Port Consortium from the construction group IJM Group for a total of US$102 million. It is in such context and with due consideration of such developments that this paper will explore the prospects and challenges facing China–Malaysia cooperation within the overall framework of China–ASEAN strategic relations.

Xuefeng Qian · Kalsoom Rafi Que · Yingna Wu ·China and World Economy ·2020 ·JEL: F14, F16, J23, O10

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and thirdcountry markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We fi nd that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally