Research

Loo Sze Ying · Mukaramah Harun ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2019

This paper estimated the reactions of frms and households to the change of government expenditure from fuel subsidies to two alternative fscal regimes, including the expansion of government expenditure on agricultural investment and direct cash transfers. Outcomes brought by the government expenditure changes to outputs of production for frms, together with the household consumption expenditure, were taken into account. This study was carried out by using a Löfgren-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The fndings showed that complete fuel withdrawal was found to have adverse impacts on frms and households. The withdrawal of subsidy brought a lackluster performance in domestic production. Firms that needed large amounts of fuel products to produce outputs were greatly affected. Besides, households of all segments faced large consumption loss. Nevertheless, the resulting adverse impacts on frms and households could be minimized with the implementation of mitigation measures along with the subsidy reform. The additional fund transfer to the agricultural sector had the merits of improving domestic production and minimizing the consumption loss of the population. In contrast, the direct cash transfer benefted the target population -- the mediumand low-income segments in the urban and rural areas.

Vickie Siew-Hoon Yew · Abul Quasem Al-Amin · Evelyn S Devadason ·Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ·2020 ·JEL: F14, F10, F19

The import intensive food processing sector in Malaysia is highly regulated with non-tariff measures (NTMs) from the import side. However, the ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of those NTMs vary substantially across the subsectors of food processing. To assess the trade costs or plausible protection effects associated with NTMs, the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed with partial removal of NTMs from the baseline scenario with NTMs. The disaggregated impact of a reduction in NTMs indicate disproportionate gains in trade (both imports and exports) across the various subsectors, with highest gains derived by the subsectors with relatively high AVEs, namely dairy products, bakery products and animal feeds. The simulation findings further show that the overall impact of a reduction in NTMs on trade is larger in the long run relative to the short run, suggesting slow responses to such policy changes, as NTMs present themselves as a package and not as an instrument.

Saeed Solaymani ·Journal of Economic Studies ·2020 ·JEL: H2, H24, H25, O15

This study is the first attempt to analyze the effectiveness of recent two major tax policies, the reductions in personal and corporate income taxes and a rise in indirect tax and their combine, under both balanced and unbalanced budget conditions, on the economy and social aspects of Malaysia. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of all simulation scenarios on the key macro and micro indicators. Further, based on the 2012 Malaysia Household Income and Expenditure Survey, it uses a micro-data with a significant number of households (over 56,000 individuals) to analyze the impacts of tax policies on poverty and income inequality of Malaysian. Simulation results show that, under the balanced budget condition, personal and corporate income tax reductions increase economic growth, household consumption, and investment, while the rise in indirect tax has adverse impacts on these variables. However, in the unbalanced budget condition, all tax policies, except indirect tax policy, reduce real GDP and investment in the economy and the indirect tax policy has insignificant impacts on all indicators. All policy reforms reallocate resources, especially labor, in the economy. In both budget conditions, the reductions in corporate and personal income taxes, particularly the corporate income tax, decrease poverty level of Malaysian households. Results also indicate that both tax policies are unable to influence income inequality in Malaysia.

Saeed Solaymani ·Environment, Development and Sustainability ·2018

This study attempts to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of the probable change in rainfall and temperature simultaneously on food availability and access to food issues, as the two dimensions of food security, in Malaysia. It uses an integrated method comprising of a stochastic method and a computable general equilibrium model using the latest (2010) input–output table published in 2015. The stochastic method, which relates to the Monte Carlo simulation, provides the probable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data of rainfall and temperature and crop productivity. It was found that, simultaneous variation of rainfall and temperature, in both the short- and long-run, contracts the economic performance of Malaysia. Findings also show the negative impact of rainfall–temperature variability, in both time periods, on food availability and access to food due to a reduction in the supply of agricultural products, a commodity inflation pressure and a reduction in household income. Moreover, results suggest that the climate variability shocks lead to a reduction in the consumption and welfare of all household groups, particularly in rural areas.