Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Fazelina Sahul Hamid · Muhamed Zulkhibri ·Institutions and Economies ·2019 ·JEL: E44; E52

This paper examines the effectiveness of bank lending channels in ASEAN countries. The main objective of this paper is to identify whether the effectiveness of bank lending channels in ASEAN differs based on the countries’ financial structure, banks’ fundamentals and ownership type. The study makes use of unbalanced panel data of 214 commercial banks in nine ASEAN countries for the period from 2001 to 2015. Analysis using dynamic GMM estimators finds that the bank lending channel is more effective in CLMV countrieswhich have a less-developed financial sector compared to ASEAN-5 countries which have a moredeveloped financial sector. Particularly, we find that smaller banks with less liquidity have a broader scope to expand their financing portfolios when interest rates rise. We also find that foreign banks in ASEAN-5 countries andstate-owned banks in ASEAN countries weaken the effect of monetary policy transmissions. However, local banks are vulnerable to changes in monetary policy. Further analyses confirm that the influence of ownership structure on credit growth is partly driven by the differences in the banks’ specific characteristics.Our findings suggest that theeffectiveness of bank lending channel depends on financial structure, bank fundamentals and ownership structure. The regulators need to take this into account to ensure that the changes in monetary policy achieve the desired objectives.

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary · Han-Phoumin · Ehsan Rasoulinezhad ·Economic Analysis and Policy ·2022 ·JEL: H81, G21

The main objective of this paper is to identify the determining factors of the optimal credit guarantee ratio in four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), namely Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, by employing statistical techniques and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. The empirical findings prove that the loan default ratio is the optimal credit guarantee ratio’s main determining factor. The empirical findings confirm that the credit guarantee ratio needs to be increased in the ASEAN region to help SMEs survive in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and for the post-COVID-19 economic recovery. The results show that the credit guarantee ratio should vary for different countries based on the macroeconomic climate and for each bank or, in other words, for groups of banks with similar financial soundness. The practical policy recommendations are establishing a regional credit guarantee scheme (RCGS) and evaluating banks’ soundness for setting the optimal credit guarantee ratio.