Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

J. M. Shukri · Muzafar Shah Habibullah · Roseziahazni Abdul Ghani · M. A. M. Suhaily ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2021 ·JEL: E43, E52, F31, F32, F33, F41

The aim of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium of exchange rates and identify the roles of macroeconomics fundamentals affecting exchange rates using Malaysian data spanning 1970 to 2019. This study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to examine the long-run relationships or cointegration among variables and the dynamic effect within variables in the short-run over the sample period. The results suggest that inflation rate and national income growth rate play important roles in influencing exchange rate movement. The results also reveal that the misalignment of exchange rates is quite small and stable during 1988 to 2019, except for 2015 which was attributed to the weaker growth in China. Consecutively, this study suggests that the parity condition is only important in the long-run in explaining exchange rates behaviour for the sample country.

Nur Farah Zafirah Zulkiflee · Nurbaizura Borhan · Mohd Fikri Hadrawi ·Pertanika Journal of Social Science and Humanities ·2022

An increase in the crime rate may jeopardize a country’s development and economic growth. Thus, understanding the relationship between crime and a few determinants is crucial in sustaining the economic growth in Malaysia. The four determinants used in this research are economic growth, population, education level, and inflation rate. The data covers the period from 1984 to 2019, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approaches were used in this research. The findings showed that only the population has a significant positive impact on crime rates for long-term and short-term relationships. Meanwhile, economic growth and education level have a significant long-term positive effect on the crime rate. On the other hand, the inflation rate did not significantly impact the crime rate in long-term and short-term relationships. Interestingly, it was found in the findings that the crime rate and population showed a bidirectional causal relationship indicating that the past population values are useful for a better prediction of the current crime rate and vice versa. Thus, the Malaysian government should encourage people to cooperate with the enforcement authorities to deter crime for future environmental safety effectively.

Y. Amjad · N.A.M Naseem · W.N.W. Azman-Saini · Tajul Ariffin Masron · K. Kriskkumar ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2018

Export has been considered as main contributor to economic growth in which also known as export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis. The purpose of this study is to identify the export-led growth nexus in Malaysia. Specifically, this study focuses on disaggregated level of exports such as export of goods and manufactured sectors. By using ARDL co-integration technique for data that covers from 1980 to 2015, the result discovers that exports have positive impact on economic growth, particularly at disaggregated levels of exports namely exports of goods and export of manufactured sectors. This further supports the validation of the export-led growth hypothesis, especially in small, open and dynamic economy like Malaysia. From policy point of view, Malaysia policy makers should give special focus to search for better catalyst of exports promotion strategy to continuously and effectively promote long-term economic growth.

Malik Cahyadin · Tamat Sarmidi ·Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia ·2019

The study aims to estimate the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), labour, and external debt on economic growth in Indonesia and Malaysia over the period 1980-2016. The fndings are expected to serve as a reference for macroeconomic policies in Indonesia and Malaysia. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), we fnd that FDI, labour force and external debt have a signifcant impact on the economic growth in the long- and short- run in both countries. Statistically, the estimated models are stable. Therefore, it is recommended that the authorities in Indonesia and Malaysia should concentrate on attracting more quality FDI infows and properly manage external debts as well as high-skilled labour force, which are vital to economic growth.

Syazwani Kepli · Yasmin Bani · Anitha Rosland · Nisful Laila ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2021 ·JEL: G21, E44

Financial institutions like commercial banks play important role in the financial system by helping countries to grow and provide capital and platform for investors. However, banks need to be able to generate income in their lending business and perform efficiently. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) is one of the tools to determine the efficiency of lending institutions in which reflect the quality of the credit portfolio as well as the health of the banking sector. High levels of NPLs in the banking system places the banks in risky situation which may lead to limited financial activities and consequently lower investment and growth. Motivated by this scenario, this study examines the determinants of NPLs in the Malaysian banking system. Using annual data from 1988 to 2018, the study estimates the short and long-run dynamics of several determinants using the Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. The empirical results demonstrate mixed results. In the long-run, exchange rate is positive and significantly related to non-performing loans, while industrial production and money supply are negative and significant. However, inflation does not have significant effect on NPLs in Malaysia. The findings of this study is useful in assisting the banking institutions and policy makers to design macro and fiscal policies.

Ke-Chyn Ng · Mui-Yin Chin ·International Journal of Economics and Management ·2021 ·JEL: F14, F31

This study examined the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the level of international trade between Malaysia and China using 45 observations spanning from 2010 quarter 1 to 2021 quarter 1. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was adopted to compute the exchange rate fluctuations. International trade between Malaysia and China was selected in this study as, since 2009, China has consistently been Malaysia's top trading partner. Besides, to produce precise output, this study employed two models: the export and import models. The empirical results, derived from Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling, suggested that exchange rate fluctuations had a negative but statistically insignificant impact on exports. In contrast, exchange rate fluctuations had a positive and statistically significant impact on imports. This result implied that importers from Malaysia were generally risk-takers, as they tended to trade significantly during periods of high exchange rate fluctuation. However, to avoid losses for both exporters and importers due to exchange rate fluctuations, policymakers from both countries should ensure that facilities for exchange rate hedging become more convenient and straightforward for traders so that international trade continues to bloom for both countries.

Chai-Thing Tan · Azali Mohamed · Muzafar Shah Habibullah · Lee Chin ·South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance ·2020 ·JEL: E52, E58, E62, C01

This article analyses the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand from 1980:Q1 to 2017:Q1. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to determine the long-run relationship. Further, a range of econometric models, such as fully modified least squares method (FMOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS), are applied to check the robustness. The results are stable and robust as all the models yield consistency result. The main findings in this study demonstrate that: (a) interest rate had a negative impact on economic growth in three selected countries.